HomeBlogH-1B Cap CountThe 2015 H-1B Cap Lottery: What are the Odds of Being Selected?

The 2015 H-1B Cap Lottery: What are the Odds of Being Selected?

  • April 10, 2014
  • Category: H-1B Cap Count, H-1B Visas
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U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announced on April 7 that it has received a sufficient number of H-1B petitions to reach the statutory cap of 65,000 visas for fiscal year (FY) 2015. USCIS has also received more than the limit of 20,000 H-1B petitions filed under the advanced degree exemption.

USCIS received about 172,500 H-1B petitions during the filing period which began April 1, including petitions filed for the advanced degree exemption. On April 10, 2014, USCIS completed a computer-generated random selection process, or lottery, to select enough petitions to meet the 65,000 general-category cap and 20,000 cap under the advanced degree exemption. For cap-subject petitions not randomly selected, USCIS will reject and return the petition with filing fees, unless it is found to be a duplicate filing.  SOURCE

So, what are the odds of a normal applicant being selected in this lottery?  We have to keep in mind that out of the normal 65,000 regular Cap numbers, USCIS sets aside up to 6,800 visas from the cap of 65,000 during each fiscal year for the H-1B1 program under the terms of the legislation implementing the U.S.-Chile and U.S.-Singapore Free Trade Agreements.  Also, the first 20,000 petitions filed for a beneficiary who has obtained a U.S. master’s degree or higher are exempt.  You would therefore take both of these numbers off the top. 

So, here is how the math works for regular Cap applicants:

  1.              172,500 applied for FY-2014 (approximately)
  2.              Less:  20,000    (U.S.-educated advanced degree holders)
  3.              Less:  6,800      (Chile-Singapore Free Trade Agreements)
  4.              Net Numbers:  145,700
  5.              58,200 divided into 145,700 yields  .39945  

If you are a normal H-1B Cap Applicant, you therefore have an approximate 40% chance of being selected in this year’s FY-2015 H-1B Lottery.  Last year’s applicants had a 59.9% chance of being selected in the FY-2014 H-1B Lottery.  If you and your employer are in the unlucky 60% who do not receive a Cap Number, absent  immigration reform, you will have to wait until April 1, 2015 to reapply for the H-1B visa.  

The system will turn away 60% of skilled professionals in this category.  This is a broken immigration system.  



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