H-1B Cap Lottery: What are the odds of being selected?

The H-1B visa system is unsustainable under the present system and is in serious need of reform.  In the first five days of the filing period last week(April 1-5), USICS received approximately 124,000 H-1B petitions during the filing period, including petitions filed for the advanced degree exemption.

USCIS has now used a computer-generated random selection process (commonly known as a “lottery”) to select a sufficient number of petitions needed to meet the caps of 65,000 for the general category and 20,000 under the advanced degree exemption limit.  SOURCE.

So, what are the odds of a normal applicant being selected in this lottery?  We have to keep in mind that out of the normal 65,000 regular Cap numbers, USCIS sets aside up to 6,800 visas from the cap of 65,000 during each fiscal year for the H-1B1 program under the terms of the legislation implementing the U.S.-Chile and U.S.-Singapore Free Trade Agreements.  Also, the first 20,000 petitions filed for a beneficiary who has obtained a U.S. master’s degree or higher are exempt.  You would therefore take both of these numbers off the top. 

So, here is how the math works for regular Cap applicants:

1.              124,000 applied for FY-2014 (approximately)
   
2.              Less:  20,000    (U.S.-educated advanced degree holders)
3.              Less:  6,800      (Chile-Singapore Free Trade Agreements)
4.              Net Numbers:  97,200
5.              58,200 divided into 97,200 yields  .598756.  

If you are a normal H-1B Cap Applicant, you therefore have a 59.9% chance of being selected in this year’s FY-2014 H-1B Lottery.  If you and your employer are in the unlucky 40.1% who do not receive a Cap Number, absent  immigration reform, you will have to wait until April 1, 2014 to reapply for the H-1B visa.